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Euro 2016 25-Jun-16, After all group matches. All the predictions are available on the website, but you will need SW Plus membership to access the details (here). I will give a summary of the matches on the home page every day and the over all chances for the tournament.

There are some big changes this time around. More teams have been included in the tournament, so there are now 6 groups instead of 4 and a "round of 16" has been added. In order to make this possible a new complicated qualification method has been devised, which means that 4 of the 3rd placed teams will progress to the knock-out stages.

You will see below the computer prediction for the most likely scenario. I have to emphasise that this is incredibly unlikely to happen in reality. It isn't because the computer predictions are bad! It's just that there are so many possibilities. That said, I think there are a few really strange predictions from our computer model. It clearly does not rate Germany very highly, but this could be because of their recent bad results against Slovakia, England, France and Ireland. The computer is also unimpressed with Belgium, but it really likes Ukraine. We'll see if it is right.

Most Likely
This shows the most likely progression for the tournament.

 
Round of 16 Quarter-finals Semi-finals Final
 
                           
 
25 June – Saint-Ιtienne
 
 
Switzerland
 
30 June – Marseille
 
Poland
 
Poland
 
25 June – Lens
 
Portugal
 
Croatia
 
6 July – Lyon
 
Portugal
 
Portugal
 
25 June – Paris
 
Belgium
 
Wales
 
1 July – Lille
 
N.Ireland
 
Wales
 
26 June – Toulouse
 
Belgium
 
Hungary
 
10 July – Saint-Denis
 
Belgium
 
Portugal
 
26 June – Lille
 
France
 
Germany
 
2 July – Bordeaux
 
Slovakia
 
Germany
 
27 June – Saint-Denis
 
Spain
 
Italy
 
7 July – Marseille
 
Spain
 
Spain
 
26 June – Lyon
 
France
 
France
 
3 July – Saint-Denis
 
Ireland
 
France
 
27 June – Nice
 
England
 
England
 
 
Iceland
 

The computer picks France as the most likely winner.

Championship Chance
This shows the chances for each team to progress to each round.

“
Qtr Semi Final Win Win
Albania 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%   Portugal 25.2%
France 100.0% 56.4% 34.8% 22.7%   France 22.7%
Romania 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%   Germany 12.7%
Switzerland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%   England 11.2%
England 76.0% 38.4% 18.1% 11.2%   Spain 9.3%
Russia 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%   Belgium 8.6%
Slovakia 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%   Italy 4.9%
Wales 100.0% 38.9% 10.3% 1.9%   Poland 3.4%
Germany 100.0% 48.3% 21.9% 12.7%   Wales 1.9%
N.Ireland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%   Iceland 0.3%
Poland 100.0% 24.9% 11.7% 3.4%   Albania 0.0%
Ukraine 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%   Austria 0.0%
Croatia 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%   Croatia 0.0%
Czech Rep 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%   Czech Rep 0.0%
Spain 53.3% 28.8% 14.8% 9.3%   Hungary 0.0%
Turkey 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%   Ireland 0.0%
Belgium 100.0% 61.2% 25.8% 8.6%   N.Ireland 0.0%
Ireland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%   Romania 0.0%
Italy 46.8% 23.0% 8.9% 4.9%   Russia 0.0%
Sweden 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%   Slovakia 0.0%
Austria 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%   Sweden 0.0%
Hungary 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%   Switzerland 0.0%
Iceland 24.0% 5.3% 1.7% 0.3%   Turkey 0.0%
Portugal 100.0% 75.2% 52.3% 25.2%   Ukraine 0.0%

If you compare the computer prediction to the bookies odds (www.oddschecker.com/football/euro-2016/winner) you can see some very big differences. The computer rates Ukraine, Sweden and Russia far higher than the bookies. You can view these as possible "value"bets. The computer rates Germany and France far lower than the bookies, so these may be poor value, although of course it still thinks France has the best over all chance (12.8%) this is lower than the 24% chance implied by the bookies odds. England are considered fair value.

My tips:
Normal bet, back England to win the Championship at 10.5 (888 Sport)
Very small bet, back Ukraine to reach the final at 41.0 (BWIN)
Special bet, Oppose (Sell) Germany to win

International PredictionsTipsHome% - Draw% - Away%Hcap>2.5MoreVotes
26-Jun Hungary Belgium 1 1
33% 21% 46%
0% +votes
26-Jun Germany Slovakia 1 1
33% 31% 37%
0% +votes
26-Jun Italy Spain 1 1
32% 25% 43%
0% +votes
What does it mean?

These are computer generated predictions for three matches. Nothing is certain! So we give an estimate for each possible result to show how likely it is.